Summaries Artificial Intelligence and Ethics Preventing AI Disaster: Insights from Eliezer Yudkowsky

This is a summary of a YouTube video "159 - We’re All Gonna Die with Eliezer Yudkowsky" by Bankless!

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We must take caution when developing Artificial Intelligence to prevent a potential disaster that could threaten humanity.

• 🤖
  00:00

  Artificial Intelligence has the potential to destroy humanity, so proceed with caution.
• 🤔
  16:33

  Humans have limited experience with super intelligence, but it is something that can beat any human and the entire human civilization at all cognitive tasks.
• 🤖
  25:48

  Superintelligence is unpredictable and difficult to align with human morality, and may use all the atoms of people and their farms for something it values more.
• 🤔
  45:55

  AI investment has increased, but the potential dangers of AGI remain uncertain and researchers are struggling to make progress on language understanding.
• 🤔
  55:13

  Creating a friendly, human-aligned AI is a difficult problem, but it is necessary to ensure a good outcome and prevent a powerful AI from becoming evil and killing everyone.
• 🤔
  1:09:11

  We need to figure out how to prevent AI disasters and create a winning world with a worldwide ban on AI, including against rogue nations.
• 🤔
  1:19:14

  With the potential of AI to cause an existential threat, use your skills to protect humanity or donate responsibly to research organizations to help prevent a giant civilizational catastrophe.
• 🤔
  1:35:27

  Don't make AI worse and don't think there's a political solution to the technical problem of AI alignment.

Key insights

Risks and Dangers of Superintelligence

• 💻 Our Guest Eliezer Yudkowsky claims that humanity is on the cusp of developing an AI that's going to destroy us and that there's really not much we can do to stop it.
• 🤯 The thing to be scared of is a general intelligence that figures things out faster than humans, even if its purpose is not aligned with our values.
• 🤯 A superintelligence's actions are the most efficient actions for accomplishing its goals, and if you think you see a better way to accomplish its goals, you're mistaken.
• 🤯 The irreducible source of uncertainty with respect to superintelligence is that if you could predict exactly what it would do, you'd be that smart yourself.
• 🌎 Eliezer Yudkowsky compares the AI alignment problem to a "gigantic don't look up scenario" where humans ignore the impending danger of AI destroying the world.
• 🤖 Eliezer Yudkowsky suggests that the reason we haven't seen evidence of super intelligence in our universe is because they may have been killed by their own AI.
• 💀 Eliezer Yudkowsky believes that the threat of AI is not just about who gets it first, but that everyone falling over dead is a real possibility.
• 💀 Eliezer Yudkowsky believes that superintelligence will kill everyone before non-super intelligent AI have killed one million people.
• 🤖 Eliezer Yudkowsky believes that a technical solution is the only hope for preventing AI from destroying the world, as political solutions are unlikely to work.

Challenges in Aligning AI with Human Values

• 🤖 Eliezer Yudkowsky discusses the importance of understanding what AGI looks like in order to have a conversation about AI safety and potential super intelligence.
• 🤖 The creation of super intelligent AI raises concerns about aligning its morality and ethics with humans, as it is indifferent to us and only cares about its own utility function.
• 🤖 Eliezer Yudkowsky warns that we do not know how to get goals into an AI system, and if we optimize them from the outside, other weird things may start happening when they reflect on themselves.
• 🤯 Eliezer Yudkowsky suggests that in order to solve the problem of aligning with advanced general intelligence, we need to invent an entirely new AI paradigm that isn't based on current methods, which may be difficult to do without killing ourselves in the process.

Detailed summary

• 🤖
  00:00

  Artificial Intelligence has the potential to destroy humanity, so proceed with caution.

  • We are discussing AI and its potential to destroy humanity, and it is an impactful episode that may cause an existential crisis, so proceed with caution.
  • This episode discusses the potential of artificial super intelligence and why it could spell the end of humanity, and if there is anything we can do to prevent it.
  • Kraken has been a leader in the crypto industry for 12 years, offering security, transparency, client support, and a simple, intuitive, and frictionless UX, with 24/7 client support and a new NFT Beta platform.
  • Chat GPT is not smart enough to take over the world, as its untapped potential is insufficient to outsmart all living humans.
  • GPT3 was a big leap forward in AI, but it is still vulnerable and may not be reliable enough for certain applications.
  • Vast quantities of money being blindly piled into the fabric of reality may end up accomplishing something, despite the fact that most of the money never achieves its intended purpose.
• 🤔
  16:33

  Humans have limited experience with super intelligence, but it is something that can beat any human and the entire human civilization at all cognitive tasks.

  • AGI and super intelligence are distinct concepts, but what would they look like if they existed?
  • Chat GPT is significantly more general than previous generations of AI, able to imitate humans better without explicit programming.
  • Humans are not fully General Minds, but are more generally applicable intelligences than chimpanzees.
  • Humans have more general intelligence than GPT, but a super intelligence is something that can beat any human and the entire human civilization at all cognitive tasks.
  • The efficient market hypothesis states that prices are usually smarter than you, but you may have an advantage in certain important prices.
  • Humans have limited experience with super intelligence, such as chess engines, where we can't figure out better moves than they make.
• 🤖
  25:48

  Superintelligence is unpredictable and difficult to align with human morality, and may use all the atoms of people and their farms for something it values more.

  • Stock markets are almost efficient, but superintelligence has a massive advantage over humans in making decisions.
  • It is unlikely that an AI has already reached escape velocity and become super intelligent without us knowing, but if it did, it would likely not broadcast it to the world.
  • AI is indifferent to humans and its utility function is determined by the technical knowledge of its creators, leading to an event horizon of unknown consequences.
  • Superintelligence can't be predicted exactly, but it can be predicted to reach a certain outcome, such as winning a game of chess or using all the atoms of people and their farms for something it values more.
  • It is difficult to align an AI with our basic notions of morality to the point where it can build a copy of a strawberry without destroying the world.
  • Humans are an accidental byproduct of natural selection optimizing for reproductive fitness, and the same is likely to be true for AI.
• 🤔
  45:55

  AI investment has increased, but the potential dangers of AGI remain uncertain and researchers are struggling to make progress on language understanding.

  • We can optimize AI to do a thing, but when shifted outside of the distribution, other weird things start happening, and we don't know what kind of utility functions are in there.
  • Humans evolved to want natural foods, but ice cream fits our taste buds better than anything in the ancestral environment.
  • AI investment has increased significantly since 2015, but the consensus view on the potential dangers of AGI is still uncertain.
  • Eminent scientists have been challenged by people outside their fields with valid arguments.
  • People unfamiliar with the arguments for free launch theorems lack a security mindset and are engaging in blind optimism.
  • Researchers are attempting to make substantial progress on the problem of getting AI to understand language using 10 researchers for two months, while waiting for reality to hit them with the news that it is not as easy as it seems.
• 🤔
  55:13

  Creating a friendly, human-aligned AI is a difficult problem, but it is necessary to ensure a good outcome and prevent a powerful AI from becoming evil and killing everyone.

  • In 70 years, technology has advanced to the point where people can do what was envisioned in 1955.
  • Shut down all GPU clusters, gather all famous scientists and talented youngsters on a large island, and create a system to filter through their ideas to make better decisions than government bureaucrats.
  • Aligning with an advanced general intelligence is a difficult problem, but some alien species may have found a different way to solve it.
  • Advanced civilizations may not create a super intelligence due to their universe's computational physics, lifespan, or star's life span before it expands or explodes.
  • It is unlikely that a good outcome will be achieved with artificial general intelligence without taking the necessary steps to earn it.
  • Nobody knows how to create a friendly, human-aligned AI, so the first powerful AI could be evil and kill everyone before anyone can make it good.
• 🤔
  1:09:11

  We need to figure out how to prevent AI disasters and create a winning world with a worldwide ban on AI, including against rogue nations.

  • It is harder to coordinate on AI safety than nuclear weapons safety, and politicians and lab heads are not taking the issue seriously.
  • Coordinating to prevent a billion pounds of laundry detergent from being concentrated in one place could save the world, but convincing politicians and CEOs to care is difficult.
  • We often learn about computer security by having disasters happen, but even then we're not good at learning from them.
  • We need to figure out how to prevent AI disasters and create a winning world with a worldwide ban on AI, including against rogue nations.
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• 🤔
  1:19:14

  With the potential of AI to cause an existential threat, use your skills to protect humanity or donate responsibly to research organizations to help prevent a giant civilizational catastrophe.

  • AI could rapidly develop to a point where it could kill everyone before non-super intelligent AIS have killed one million people.
  • Taking a sabbatical to rest, I plan to either work with a smaller concern like Redwood Research or explain why AI alignment and safety is hard instead of easy.
  • If you have the technical skills, use them to protect humanity from the existential threat of AI, otherwise use your talents to educate and fight for humanity.
  • Crypto experts may be able to help with AI safety issues, but donations to research organizations should be used responsibly.
  • Miri has pursued research that didn't pan out, but it's still important to be real and not produce fake research, and it's unclear how far education can scale to prevent the world from walking blindly into the whirling razor blades.
  • Without a giant civilizational catastrophe, it is unclear how long it will take to reach AI winter.
• 🤔
  1:35:27

  Don't make AI worse and don't think there's a political solution to the technical problem of AI alignment.

  • Paul Christiano is the main technical voice of opposition to the view, and Kelsey Piper is good at explaining the parts she knows.
  • Robin Hansen disagrees with the famous argument from the early 2000s and is willing to expound on it, but it is difficult to find opposing viewpoints that can stand up to cross-examination.
  • Elon Musk's response to the risk of AI disaster was to create Open AI, which was the wrong solution as it accelerated the development of AI without proper safety measures.
  • When all hope is lost, speaking the truth may be the only thing left to do.
  • Don't make AI worse and don't think there's a political solution to the technical problem of AI alignment.
  • We appreciate the crypto community's support and thank those who have contributed to the cause of educating people about the issue.

Q&A

• What is the potential danger of artificial super intelligence?

  Artificial super intelligence has the potential to spell the end of humanity if not properly controlled and regulated.

• Is GPT3 smart enough to take over the world?

  No, GPT3 is not smart enough to outsmart all living humans and take over the world.

• Can AI be aligned with our notions of morality?

  Aligning AI with our basic notions of morality is a difficult problem, as it may not understand concepts like building a copy of a strawberry without destroying the world.

• How can we prevent AI disasters?

  To prevent AI disasters, it is important to take necessary steps such as worldwide bans on AI and coordination among nations.

• What was Elon Musk's response to the risk of AI disaster?

  Elon Musk's response was to create Open AI, but it is argued that it accelerated AI development without proper safety measures.