Challenges Facing Russian Economy: Deficit, Weak Ruble, and Inflation
This article is a summary of a YouTube video "Рубль падает, банки бьют тревогу, дефицит бюджета. Милов о российской экономике" by Майкл Наки
TLDR The Russian economy is facing challenges such as a growing deficit, weak ruble, decreasing demand, and increasing inflation, with the government implementing short-term measures and no clear plans for future restoration.
Russian deficit decreases slightly in Q1, but still at 83% of planned annual deficit, with unstable global economy and low oil prices posing potential risks.
The Russian government is allocating more money towards military spending and implementing new taxes, while facing a growing deficit due to decreased oil and gas revenues and a weak economy.
The ruble is weakening due to Western companies leaving the Russian market and a lack of demand, causing uncertainty about its future trend and a decrease in economic activity.
The weak economy and expensive supply chains may cause new failures, while OPEC's decision to reduce oil production could contribute to inflation and slow down global economic growth.
Banks fear mass withdrawals as they hesitate to name the four large banks requiring measures to prevent bankruptcy, while toxic assets and monopolization in Russia's banking sector raise concerns.
Russian economy shows signs of recovery in transport but stagnation in industrial production and lack of demand for products leading to drop in retail sales, while inflation has significantly increased over the past year and a half.
Russian consumer loan delinquency is increasing, with over half of borrowers having at least two loans, leading to the Central Bank limiting lending and a negative impact on banks, while the government's economic processes are destroying the base and Putin's strategy seems to be short-term support with no plans for future restoration.