Founders must understand the importance of fundraising and choose between being "default alive" or "default dead," focusing on metrics like burn rate and retention, staying lean, and taking losses to succeed in the long run.

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  00:00

  Startups must choose between being "default alive" or "default dead" and founders should understand that fundraising is a series of mini-games that get progressively harder.

  • Michael Seibel and Dalton Caldwell discuss the concept of default alive or default debt in startups, which was coined by Paul Graham, and recommend reading his blog post for a more in-depth understanding.
  • "Default alive" means a startup may be burning money today but has a high enough growth rate on revenue to become profitable before the bank account goes to zero.
  • The concept of default alive or default dead is a binary option that forces founders to pin themselves down in their own mind, and a calculator has been created to help calculate this.
  • Founders may feel awkward admitting their concerns about raising the next round of funding to their co-founders or investors.
  • Raising the next round of funding for startups is often harder than the previous round due to a smaller pool of investors and increased investment amount, and founders should understand that fundraising is a series of mini-games that get progressively harder.
  • The economy is unpredictable and investors can affect the success of companies during difficult times.
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  05:53

  Fundraising is crucial for a business, but it's important to plan for different outcomes and leverage strengths to improve the pitch.

  • Plan for a wider range of possibilities in the next round and consider the margin of error.
  • Most fundraisers fail, but it's not the end of the world and you can always try again.
  • If investors hold the key to your company, you're working for them and if your fundraise doesn't work, you die.
  • Leverage is important in fundraising as it not only improves the pitch but also shows investors that the business is stronger, while running a business on low runway takes two average hits and can lead to worse investment terms.
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  09:19

  Investors push for explosive growth, while founders should focus on metrics like burn rate and retention to keep the company alive.

  • Founders often get caught up in the math around default dead default live when pitching to investors, but it's important to focus on metrics like burn rate and retention to ensure the company stays alive.
  • Investors and founders have opposite incentives, and it makes sense for investors to push for explosive growth in their portfolio companies, even if some fail, because time is the limiting factor for a good fund.
  • Founders often have misconceptions about investors demanding rapid growth and burning through money, but the truth is that founders don't need much of a push to do so.
  • Reduce dilution by being concise and powerful.
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  14:03

  Overspending can lead to low runway and potential failure for founders, so it's important to stay lean until you have a product.

  • Founders often seek permission to blitz scale and hearing advice to grow faster can trigger them to go all in, even if burning through funds is not their biggest concern.
  • Founders often fall into the "fatal pinch" by overspending and not staying lean until they have a product, leading to low runway and potential failure.
  • If you suspect you might need to do the math on your company's runway, it's probably already too late, and bringing it up can be a buzzkill, but it's important to consider before it's too late because most companies that attempt to get acquired when they're low on runway fail.
  • A dying company has no market value and no one wants to buy problems, but having 12-18 months of runway provides flexibility on the acquisition front.
  • When defaulting on payments, the first step is to assess the number of people involved and prioritize communication with them.
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  19:43

  Don't over-hire to avoid bankruptcy and learn to take losses to succeed in the long run.

  • Over hiring is the main reason for bankrupting a company, and the best solution is to never over hire to begin with.
  • Don't over-hire to avoid the problem of how to fix it, and be cautious of increasing ad spend as it may result in longer payback periods and less effective ad dollars.
  • Successful companies need to learn how to take losses and make sacrifices in order to survive and thrive in the long run.
  • Selling products at a loss to offer a deal to customers is a common strategy, even though it means losing money on every transaction.
  • Successful companies in the industry are very smart and sophisticated in understanding numbers, defaults, and burn, like DoorDash, who were test pilots flying close to the mountain but aware of it.
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  24:46

  Justin.tv and Twitch faced financial struggles, but taking a hit to their growth rate allowed them to recover faster and continue towards success.

  • Taking a big hit to your growth rate in order to get to default to live is like personal bankruptcy, but in the startup world, it's better because you can recover faster and be judged on the last six to 18 months.
  • Justin.tv and Twitch had grown to 30 million monthly viewers and $750,000 in revenue, but with $1 million in expenses and burning $250,000 a month, they faced a "come to Jesus" moment with only half a million dollars in the bank.
  • Former founders admit to making mistakes and facing the possibility of failure, but were surprised by their employees' willingness to rally and continue working towards success.
  • Startups require mature and experienced individuals who are willing to take risks and understand the nature of being on a "pirate ship."
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  29:06

  Cut costs, raise prices, and put ads on everything to make the company profitable, and founders should be careful not to burn too much money.

  • They made the company profitable by cutting costs, raising prices, and putting ads on everything, generating 1.2 million dollars in profit by the end of December.
  • Choose the hard path, it's a smart decision that many people don't make.
  • It's okay to do a startup bankruptcy and take the time to become sustainable, rather than continuing to spend money and not course correct.
  • Avoid starting a startup with contractual obligations that require burning lots of money.
  • Survive before you thrive and give yourself enough time to figure out product market fit as a founder.
  • Founders should be careful not to react to suggestions of burning more money and must be 10x better than others in knowing their numbers in operationally intensive businesses, as they have to live with the consequences of their decisions, unlike investors who move on easily.
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  35:00

  Take control of your fundraising and do the math to alleviate stress and avoid relying on strangers to bail you out.